Hong Kong · Top 5 News
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PBoC Defends Yuan Near 3-Year High; SAFE Chief Signals Stability Priority
China's yuan is hovering near a three-year high against the USD, with State Administration of Foreign Exchange head Zhu Hexin publishing an article calling for a 'basically stable' exchange rate and a more open, secure FX system. TD Securities notes PBoC is actively defending the 6.80 level, with stimulus expectations rising in parallel. The dual signal — currency strength alongside weak April domestic data (consumption and industrial output disappointed) — creates a policy tension between export competitiveness and financial openness. Markets are watching whether PBoC allows further appreciation or intervenes more actively.
Why it matters: Yuan at multi-year highs combined with explicit SAFE stability guidance shifts the FX assumption for China-exposed portfolios; it also complicates the export-led recovery thesis and raises the probability of targeted easing, a direct read for EM FX positioning and Hong Kong-listed exporters and property developers with USD liabilities.
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Chip Export Controls Excluded from US-China Summit Agenda, Greer Confirms
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg that semiconductor export controls were not a major topic in the Trump-Xi Beijing summit, even as the two sides announced preliminary deals on Boeing jet purchases, agricultural trade, and a rare earth truce extension. The rare earth arrangement remains partial — China maintains its export restriction regime while agreeing to a temporary easing — with MSN and Crypto Briefing noting the underlying controls persist. Greer's statement removes near-term hope of a chip-controls rollback, keeping Huawei entity-list status and advanced-node equipment restrictions in place.
Why it matters: Investors pricing in a semiconductor export-control détente as part of summit outcomes need to revise that assumption; the status quo on chip restrictions is confirmed, sustaining headwinds for SMIC, Hua Hong, and equipment-exposed names on HKEX, while the rare earth partial truce provides only limited, reversible relief for supply-chain-sensitive industrials.
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China April Data Disappoints; Stimulus Talk Reignites as Economy Loses Steam
April economic data showed China's consumption and industrial output came in below expectations, with multiple sources (MSN, Crypto Briefing, Times of India) flagging an unexpected loss of momentum. Beijing issued a warning about 'severe' global risks. The weak data arrives despite a 14.1% year-on-year export surge in the January-April period — driven largely by front-loading ahead of tariff clarity — suggesting domestic demand remains the structural weak point. Stimulus speculation is intensifying, with PBoC holding the 6.80 yuan line as a partial accommodative signal.
Why it matters: Soft domestic consumption data is a direct negative read for Hong Kong-listed consumer discretionary, retail, and property names with China exposure; it also raises the probability of a PBoC rate cut or RRR reduction, which would be a catalyst for Hang Seng financials and rate-sensitive sectors.
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4
Baidu Q1 2026 Revenue Falls as AI Investment Cycle Pressures Margins
Baidu reported a quarterly revenue decline in Q1 2026, with the earnings call confirming ongoing investment in AI infrastructure as the primary cost driver. The results reflect a structural shift in Baidu's business mix — core search advertising remains under pressure from AI-native competitors while cloud and autonomous driving segments are not yet offsetting the shortfall. BIDU trades on HKEX as a dual-listed large-cap and its results are a key read on China's internet advertising market and AI monetization pace.
Why it matters: Baidu's revenue miss and margin compression challenge the consensus that Chinese AI investment translates quickly into top-line growth — a cross-read for Alibaba Cloud, Tencent advertising, and global AI infrastructure spend assumptions; it also pressures near-term sentiment on HKEX-listed China tech.
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5
Evergrande Liquidators File US$8.4B Claim Against PwC in Hong Kong Court
China Evergrande's court-appointed liquidators have filed a US$8.4 billion lawsuit against PricewaterhouseCoopers in Hong Kong, alleging audit failures during the period leading to the developer's collapse. The case, reported by BNN Bloomberg and The Malaysian Reserve, is one of the largest professional liability claims ever brought in Hong Kong courts. PwC faces significant reputational and financial exposure; the outcome could reshape auditor liability standards for China-listed and HKEX-listed companies. The case also keeps Evergrande's unresolved balance sheet risks in focus for EM credit markets.
Why it matters: A successful claim of this magnitude would materially impair PwC's Hong Kong and China operations and raises auditor-selection risk premiums across HKEX-listed Chinese SOEs and developers — a direct read for investors in HK-listed property bonds and for global audit firms with China exposure; it also signals continued legal overhang from the China property credit cycle.
Japan · Top 5 News
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Japan Long-Term JGB Yields Hit Record Highs Amid Fiscal Concerns; Yen Nears Intervention Zone
Japanese long-term government bond yields surged to record highs, driven by a combination of fiscal deterioration concerns and an active Iran-war oil shock compounding Japan's import bill. USD/JPY approached the 165 level, with UOB flagging renewed pressure near 159 and multiple desks (MUFG, BBH) warning that JGB bear steepening is deepening the structural yen weakness. Japan's Vice Finance Minister Kihara stated he is watching markets with a 'very high sense of urgency,' signaling intervention may be imminent. Concurrently, Reuters reported Japan is mulling fresh JGB issuance to fund a supplementary budget, adding supply-side pressure to an already stressed long-end.
Why it matters: Record JGB yields and a yen approaching intervention thresholds directly threaten the carry trade and global risk positioning—BoJ policy/intervention risk is the single most cross-asset relevant Japan variable right now, with JPY carry unwind capable of hitting global equities and EM assets simultaneously. Fresh JGB issuance to fund an extra budget would further steepen the curve and test BoJ's yield management tolerance.
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BOJ Advisory Panel Urges Rate Caution as Iran Oil Shock Strains Corporate Funding; Carlyle Sees Two Hikes in 2026
A BOJ advisory panel urged policymakers to heed corporate funding strains arising from Mideast energy-price disruption, injecting a dovish counter-signal into rate expectations even as markets price in tightening. Carlyle Japan simultaneously published a base case of two BOJ rate hikes in 2026, reflecting a bifurcated market view on the trajectory. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama separately acknowledged that oil-price volatility is directly affecting the forex market, tying energy geopolitics to yen dynamics. Japanese firms' full-year earnings were broadly described as AI-driven strong, but many companies withheld Iran-conflict impact from guidance, creating a systematic earnings-downside risk if the oil shock persists.
Why it matters: The tension between a panel urging rate pause and market consensus for two hikes means any BOJ communication shift will reprice JGBs and the yen sharply; investors need to reassess both the terminal rate path and the magnitude of earnings guidance risk given companies deliberately excluded Iran-shock assumptions from FY projections.
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Nikkei 225 Rules Overhaul to Be Finalized After Public Consultation Period
Nikkei Inc. announced it will solicit public feedback before finalizing a comprehensive overhaul of Nikkei 225 index methodology rules. No specific constituent changes or weighting methodology details were published in the headline, but the announcement signals an imminent structural revision to one of Asia's most-tracked equity benchmarks. The Nikkei 225 has approximately $50–70 billion in passive-tracking AUM globally, meaning any methodology change—particularly around liquidity screens, price-weighting adjustments, or sector caps—could trigger significant rebalancing flows.
Why it matters: Index rule changes are a direct flow trigger: passive funds tracking the Nikkei 225 will be forced to rebalance upon finalization, creating actionable long/short opportunities in potential inclusions and exclusions; investors should monitor the consultation output for signals on which sectors or float criteria will be targeted.
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Rakuten Bank Surges 10.4% as Mizuho Weighs Strategic Investment
Rakuten Bank shares jumped 10.4% on reports that Mizuho Financial Group is evaluating a strategic investment in the digital bank. If confirmed, this would represent a major consolidation signal in Japan's digital banking space, pairing Rakuten Bank's retail deposit base and fintech infrastructure with Mizuho's balance sheet and institutional relationships. The move would also reduce Rakuten Group's need to self-fund the bank's capital requirements, potentially alleviating pressure on the parent's heavily leveraged balance sheet. No deal size or structure was reported.
Why it matters: A Mizuho-Rakuten Bank tie-up would reshape Japan's digital banking competitive landscape and could catalyze further consolidation among incumbent megabanks and fintech challengers; cross-read for regional digital bank M&A activity and the broader monetization trajectory of Japan's online brokerage/banking ecosystem.
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Daiwa Energy Commits $630M to Japan Battery Storage for Chip and Data Center Power
Daiwa House Group's energy arm announced a $630 million investment in grid-scale battery storage infrastructure in Japan, specifically targeting power supply for semiconductor fabs and data centers. This is one of the largest single battery storage commitments in Japan to date and reflects the acute power constraints being felt by Japan's expanding AI/semiconductor manufacturing base—including TSMC's Kumamoto operations and domestic AI data center buildout. The investment also signals that energy infrastructure is becoming a binding constraint on Japan's semiconductor localization ambitions.
Why it matters: Power infrastructure capacity is emerging as a critical bottleneck for Japan's semiconductor and AI data center expansion thesis; this investment is a positive read-through for battery storage suppliers and grid technology companies, but also confirms that energy cost and availability risk must be factored into Japan AI capex models and chip-fab ramp assumptions.
Korea · Top 5 News
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1
Samsung Electronics 18-Day Strike Threat Looms; Court Partially Limits Union Action
Samsung Electronics faces a planned 18-day strike by its union of ~47,000 workers, with estimates of potential losses reaching $20B and material risk to South Korean exports and global chip supply chains. A court injunction has partially restricted the strike, and last-ditch negotiations are ongoing with South Korea's president urging a deal. Business lobbies have warned of broader economic damage, and politicians flagged public backlash risk. KOSPI rebounded ~0.31% on the day as Samsung shares recovered on injunction news and chip-stock buying, reversing an early session sidecar halt at 7,142.
Why it matters: A prolonged Samsung strike would directly impair global NAND/DRAM supply at a time of already-tight chip markets, with cross-reads to memory pricing, HBM availability, and the broader AI infrastructure build-out; resolution or escalation materially shifts Samsung's production cost and output assumptions for H2 2026.
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Korean Won Extends Losses to One-Month Low; Iran Oil Shock Hits Airline Earnings
The Korean won has extended its decline to a one-month low, pressured by a combination of rising global bond yields, elevated oil prices stemming from the Iran war disruption, and ongoing domestic risk from the Samsung labor dispute. Korean airlines are reported to face Q2 losses exceeding pandemic-era levels due to high oil prices, representing a sector-wide earnings impairment. South Korea's Finance Minister Koo has departed for the G7 Paris meeting and London investor relations sessions, suggesting active policy diplomacy around the energy/trade shock. The Iran war oil shock is identified as a macro headwind for South Korea's energy-import-dependent economy.
Why it matters: KRW weakness at a one-month low shifts the FX assumption for Korean exporters' margin and import cost models, while airline sector losses exceeding pandemic peaks signal a genuine earnings inflection that may spill into broader consumer and transport sector guidance revisions for H2 2026.
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BOK Steps Up Deposit Token Push With Auto-Conversion and Treasury Payment Tests
The Bank of Korea has advanced its deposit token pilot program, adding auto-conversion functionality and Treasury payment testing, marking a significant escalation from proof-of-concept to functional settlement infrastructure. KB Financial also separately completed a stablecoin trial. These developments indicate Korea's central bank and major financial institutions are moving toward tokenized payment rails in parallel, potentially ahead of formal regulatory framework finalization. The BOK's involvement in Treasury payments signals ambition to integrate tokenized assets into sovereign financial plumbing.
Why it matters: BOK's deposit token progress is a concrete regulatory and infrastructure data point for the Asia stablecoin/CBDC race; it offers a cross-read to global virtual asset regulation trajectories and raises competitive positioning questions for Korean fintech and banking equities versus global digital-asset-adjacent peers.
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Foreign Investors Sell Into KOSPI Rally as Korea's Foreign Equity Share Rises
Foreign investors have been net sellers into the recent KOSPI rally, which lifted Korea's foreign equity ownership share to elevated levels, according to Chosunbiz. The KOSPI touched record highs alongside the Nikkei before a mid-session sidecar halt, with the index closing up ~0.31%, led by chip stocks and individual domestic buyers absorbing foreign supply. KOSDAQ notably underperformed the KOSPI surge, reflecting a bifurcated market where large-cap semis and blue chips dominate flows. The divergence between KOSPI and KOSDAQ suggests the rally is narrowly concentrated rather than broad-based.
Why it matters: Sustained foreign selling into index highs is a flow signal that challenges the durability of the KOSPI re-rating thesis; combined with KRW weakness and a concentration in semis, it suggests positioning is thin and vulnerable to a reversal if the Samsung labor situation deteriorates or macro headwinds intensify.
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South Korea Allocates 50B Won to Develop Homegrown AI Humanoid Robots by 2030
The South Korean government announced an investment of over 50 billion won (~$37M) through 2030 to develop domestically produced AI-powered humanoid robots, per Yonhap. The program is aimed at building a sovereign capability in humanoid robotics, an area where global competition is intensifying from US and Chinese players. No specific company beneficiaries were named in the snippet, but the initiative is likely to channel procurement and R&D funding toward Korean industrial and robotics firms. This follows a pattern of government-directed investment in strategic technology verticals.
Why it matters: Government-backed humanoid robotics spending creates a nascent but identifiable funding pipeline for Korean industrials and AI hardware companies; at 50B won the headline number is modest but signals policy intent that could scale, offering a read on how Korea plans to compete in the next industrial automation cycle alongside its semiconductor strengths.
India · Top 5 News
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Rupee falls to record low 96.4/$ for 7th consecutive session amid oil shock
The Indian rupee hit a fresh all-time low of 96.4 against the US dollar, sliding for a seventh straight session and losing approximately 2% over that span. The weakness is driven by elevated crude oil prices (Brent near $112), surging global bond yields triggered by the ongoing Iran conflict, and a broadly stronger dollar. RBI intervention is reportedly limiting the pace of decline but has not arrested the trend. India's 10-year government bond yield simultaneously climbed to a 7-week high as global and domestic fixed-income markets sold off in tandem.
Why it matters: A record-low rupee tightens India's external balance (CAD projected to widen to 2.3% of GDP in FY27), raises imported inflation risk, and complicates RBI's easing bias — forcing investors to reprice the rate-cut path and reassess INR-denominated EM debt positioning. The FX/bond move also creates a direct earnings tailwind for Indian IT exporters (USD-revenue beneficiaries) while pressuring oil-marketing companies and fertiliser subsidy costs.
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India's FY27 fertiliser subsidy bill may surge Rs 70,000 cr on West Asia oil shock
A government official warned that India's fertiliser subsidy outlay for FY27 could rise by Rs 70,000 crore to approximately Rs 2.41 lakh crore, driven by higher urea and complex fertiliser import costs stemming from the West Asia conflict. This comes alongside the RBI governor flagging close monitoring of the supply-side inflation shock, while April CPI edged up to 3.48% — still below the 4% target but with upward risk accumulating. The government's fiscal arithmetic is simultaneously under pressure from potential shortfalls in the RBI surplus transfer (estimated Rs 2.7–3.0 lakh crore vs. budget assumption of Rs 3.16 lakh crore).
Why it matters: A Rs 70,000 crore fertiliser overrun is a material fiscal slippage risk for FY27, threatening the government's deficit consolidation path and potentially crowding out capital expenditure — a key driver of India's growth premium in EM portfolios. Investors should revisit India sovereign spread and fiscal deficit assumptions, and watch for any emergency fuel or fertiliser price adjustment signals.
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India-EU Free Trade Agreement to be signed by end-2026, covering 90%+ of goods
European Commission President confirmed the India-EU FTA will be concluded and signed by year-end 2026, covering tariff reductions on over 90% of goods, with a bilateral investment agreement being fast-tracked in parallel. The deal is framed explicitly around building resilient supply chains. Modi's government has simultaneously signed investment pacts with the UAE, Netherlands, and Sweden to attract FDI, amid Bloomberg commentary that India's FDI inflows remain structurally low relative to its import compression strategy.
Why it matters: A finalised India-EU FTA is a structural positive for Indian export sectors — particularly pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals, and auto components — and would materially improve the medium-term current account trajectory. Investors positioned in Indian export-oriented industrials and considering FDI-linked infrastructure plays should upgrade probability of deal closure and begin mapping sector-level tariff impacts.
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US DoJ drops all criminal charges against Gautam Adani; case permanently closed
The US Department of Justice has permanently dropped criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani following a $275 million settlement related to OFAC Iran sanctions violations. Adani's legal team had linked dismissal to a pledged $10 billion US investment commitment. The closure removes the principal legal overhang that had weighed on Adani Group equities since November 2024. Adani Enterprises and group stocks are likely to react positively to the removal of this tail risk.
Why it matters: The permanent dismissal eliminates the single largest governance/legal risk discount applied to Adani Group market caps, which aggregate to several hundred billion dollars. This is a direct re-rating catalyst for Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Adani Green, and Adani Total Gas — and a positive read for FII willingness to re-engage with the group, which had seen significant forced selling post-indictment.
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India IT index surges ~4% in two days as rupee depreciation boosts USD-revenue exporters
The Nifty IT index extended gains for a second consecutive session, rising nearly 4% cumulatively, with Persistent Systems and Coforge leading as the rupee's slide to 96.4/$ mechanically lifts INR-translated revenues and margins for dollar-earning software exporters. Meanwhile, IOC reported a 78% YoY surge in Q4 PAT to Rs 14,458 crore (revenue +7%), with strong refining margins, though IGL's PAT fell 25% YoY to Rs 341 crore on higher costs — highlighting a divergent energy earnings picture. STT Global Data Centres is also reported to be planning a $500 million India IPO, adding to the data-infrastructure pipeline.
Why it matters: The IT sector's outperformance directly cross-reads to global IT services demand resilience and validates the rupee-depreciation earnings hedge thesis for large-cap Indian tech (Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL Tech). The IOC earnings beat signals robust downstream energy margins despite macro headwinds, while the STT Data Centre IPO adds to the emerging India AI-infrastructure equity supply pipeline that investors should monitor for valuation benchmarks.
Asia Tech · Top 5 News
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1
Samsung Workers' Strike Looms, Sending Ripples Through Global Memory Stocks
A large-scale strike at Samsung is reported imminent, with CNBC and Barron's noting the threat has already caused Micron (MU) to fall ~7% and broader memory stocks to sell off. The action threatens Samsung's HBM and DRAM production lines at a moment when DDR5 spot prices have surged ~414% and HBM remains supply-constrained. Samsung accounts for a substantial share of global DRAM and NAND output; any meaningful production disruption would tighten an already undersupplied HBM market where SK Hynix and Micron are the primary beneficiaries. Secondary read-through is negative for hyperscaler AI capex timelines if HBM availability is further constrained.
Why it matters: A Samsung production halt is a direct supply shock to the HBM/DRAM market, forcing upward revision to pricing forecasts and potentially accelerating SK Hynix's market-share gains; it is also a cross-read for Nvidia's Rubin/Blackwell delivery schedules and US AI infrastructure multiples.
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CXMT Unveils Aggressive DRAM Expansion; Ex-Samsung Chief Warns China Could Collapse DDR5 Prices Within a Year
Chinese memory maker CXMT disclosed aggressive capacity expansion plans for domestic DRAM production, while a former Samsung semiconductor chief warned that China's DRAM push could deflate the current 414% DDR5 price spike within 12 months. CXMT is targeting commodity DRAM segments initially but its stated roadmap points toward higher-density products. This directly challenges the consensus assumption that the current memory upcycle is durable through 2027. The combination of CXMT supply additions and potential Samsung disruption creates a bifurcated risk: near-term shortage premium for HBM vs. longer-term oversupply risk in commodity DRAM.
Why it matters: If CXMT ramps materially faster than the market assumes, the commodity DRAM price recovery thesis for Samsung and Micron is at risk within a 12-month horizon, requiring investors to differentiate HBM-heavy exposure (SK Hynix) from commodity DRAM-weighted names.
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Kioxia Eyes US ADS Listing as AI-Driven NAND Demand Lifts Earnings
Kioxia is actively exploring a US ADS listing, according to Yahoo Finance and qz.com, with the company citing improved earnings driven by AI-related NAND flash demand. Kioxia is the world's second-largest NAND producer and already listed in Tokyo; a US listing would broaden its investor base and raise its profile in the AI infrastructure capital markets narrative. The move signals management confidence in the sustainability of the current NAND pricing cycle. It also provides a valuation read-through for Western Digital's flash business and the broader NAND oligopoly.
Why it matters: A Kioxia US listing would create a new investable AI memory proxy, potentially diverting flows from WDC and adding a pricing/demand datapoint for NAND that investors can benchmark; it also confirms the AI memory upcycle is broad enough to support equity supply.
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Nvidia Rubin Platform Reportedly Requires More DRAM Than Apple and Samsung Combined
Fast Company reports that Nvidia's next-generation Rubin AI accelerator platform will require a volume of DRAM exceeding the combined annual consumption of Apple and Samsung, representing a step-change in per-unit memory content. This is a structural demand signal for HBM4 and high-capacity DRAM, directly benefiting SK Hynix (lead HBM supplier) and potentially pulling forward Micron's HBM ramp timeline. The report reinforces the thesis that AI training and inference workloads will compress available DRAM supply materially beyond current consensus models. It also raises the stakes of the Samsung strike scenario in Rank 1.
Why it matters: This is a direct upward revision signal for HBM/DRAM TAM assumptions underpinning SK Hynix and Micron price targets, and cross-reads positively to Nvidia's own AI platform demand durability and negatively to any assumption that memory supply will catch up to demand in 2026.
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Sony Confirms PlayStation Single-Player Exclusives Return to Console-Only; Raises PS Plus Prices
Sony's PlayStation division confirmed that upcoming first-party single-player titles will no longer be ported to PC, reversing the multi-year multiplatform strategy pursued under Jim Ryan. Simultaneously, Sony announced PS Plus price increases for one- and three-month subscriptions citing 'ongoing market conditions,' with the service having generated ~$5 billion in network services revenue last year. The PC exclusivity reversal reduces the total addressable revenue per title but may support console hardware attach rates and PS Plus retention. The class action lawsuit filed over alleged PS5 tariff-related price windfall adds litigation risk to Sony's hardware margin narrative.
Why it matters: The PC strategy reversal is a negative revision to Sony's software revenue TAM assumptions and tests whether PS Plus ARPU growth (evidenced by the price hike) can offset the foregone PC sales; the combination of pricing power data and strategic contraction is a key input for Sony's gaming segment margin model.
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