Hong Kong
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1
DeepSeek Suspends Fundraising After Founder's US-China AI Remarks Go Viral
DeepSeek has paused its fundraising process after a leaked transcript of founder Liang Wenfeng's closed-door remarks on US-China AI competition went viral, triggering political sensitivity concerns. Sources indicate the company had been preparing for a potential IPO, making the fundraising suspension a material setback to near-term capital markets plans. The episode highlights deepening regulatory and reputational risk for Chinese AI firms operating in a fraught geopolitical environment. Chinese tech firms have also reportedly 'snubbed' US Congressional AI advisers, underscoring the widening institutional divide.
Why it matters: DeepSeek's IPO pipeline and private funding capacity are key valuation anchors for the Chinese AI investment thesis; a forced pause signals that geopolitical self-censorship risk is now a direct constraint on capital formation for China's leading AI players, with cross-read implications for US investors positioning in Chinese tech.
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2
Moonshot AI Kimi K3 Pushes Valuation Toward $50bn; Hong Kong IPO Targeted
Moonshot AI's latest Kimi K3 model release has driven its private market valuation toward $50 billion, with a Hong Kong IPO now identified as the likely listing venue. This follows a broader wave of Chinese AI unicorns eyeing HKEX as a capital markets destination, boosting HK's IPO pipeline narrative. The development is concurrent with Zhong'an Xinke and Puchi Pharmaceuticals also re-filing HKEX applications, suggesting a meaningful pickup in the Hong Kong listing queue across tech and biotech.
Why it matters: A $50bn AI unicorn targeting HKEX would be one of the largest tech listings in Hong Kong in years, directly supportive of Hang Seng Tech index flow and HKEX (00388) earnings; it also tests investor appetite for Chinese AI at premium valuations amid the DeepSeek fundraising overhang.
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3
Hang Seng Climbs 1.63%, Hang Seng Tech Rebounds Strongly in Friday Session
The Hang Seng Index gained 1.63%, closing near session highs, with the Hang Seng Tech index posting an even stronger rebound. Shanghai edged higher and Shenzhen also closed up, suggesting broad risk-on tone across Chinese equities. The move follows a period of volatility driven by macro uncertainty and comes ahead of key earnings from major Chinese tech platforms. Market commentary points to AI-sector momentum and easing near-term tariff anxiety as catalysts.
Why it matters: A technically significant close near session highs with tech outperformance signals a potential sentiment shift; investors positioning for Chinese internet earnings season need to reassess whether the AI-driven re-rating is durable or vulnerable to the geopolitical headwinds highlighted by the DeepSeek episode.
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4
China Want Want Issues Profit Warning; Q1 Earnings to Drop ~38% Year-on-Year
China Want Want Holdings (HKEX: 00151) issued a profit warning disclosing that profit attributable to equity holders in Q1 will fall approximately 38% year-on-year. The company, a major branded consumer food and beverage group, cited pressures consistent with broader China domestic demand weakness. The warning is a concrete data point on the state of Chinese consumer discretionary spending heading into the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: A 38% profit decline at a large-cap China consumer staples name is a stark cross-read on mainland consumption trajectory; it reinforces the bearish domestic demand narrative and raises the bar for any bullish re-rating of China consumer-exposed HK-listed equities ahead of further results.
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5
Hong Kong Developers Adapt Strategy as GBA Property Buyer Mix Shifts Structurally
Hong Kong developers operating in the Greater Bay Area report that buyer composition has fundamentally changed: the share of Hong Kong investor buyers has collapsed from ~90% pre-crisis to a small minority, with end-user mainland buyers now dominant. Developers are repricing product mix, unit sizes, and sales channels accordingly. This structural shift reflects the lasting demand destruction from the mainland property debt crisis and signals a prolonged reset in cross-border residential investment flows.
Why it matters: The buyer-mix reversal is a structural rather than cyclical shift for Hong Kong-listed property developers with GBA exposure (e.g., Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai), undermining the recovery thesis premised on returning HK investor demand and compressing forward earnings visibility.
Japan
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1
BOJ Expected on Hold Next Week While Signaling Further Rate Hikes Needed
Multiple sources confirm the Bank of Japan is set to hold rates at its upcoming policy meeting amid Middle East conflict uncertainty and ongoing US trade negotiations, while maintaining its guidance that rates need to rise further toward neutral. The yen has simultaneously breached 163 per dollar — a fresh near-40-year low — and CFTC data shows net speculative yen shorts widening to ¥-152,100 contracts, the sharpest weekly drop since May. Japan's Ministry of Finance has issued a warning it is 'ready to take decisive action on forex,' raising intervention risk. Goldman Sachs has lifted its TOPIX target to 4,500, citing the weak-yen tailwind to corporate earnings as a key driver.
Why it matters: The BOJ hold-with-hawkish-signal dynamic directly governs JPY carry trade viability — a yen at 40-year lows with record short positioning creates asymmetric intervention risk that could unwind carry positions globally; simultaneously the weak yen is the core bull thesis for Japanese equities and Goldman's TOPIX upgrade reinforces that consensus, making any snap-back particularly dangerous for positioning.
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2
Japan Secures Crude Supply as US-Iran War Drives Oil Near $100, Pressuring BOJ Peers
Japan's government has confirmed adequate crude oil procurement despite the escalating US-Iran military conflict, but oil prices near $100/bbl are creating a stagflationary headwind for the BOJ and peer central banks globally. Bloomberg flags that near-$100 oil is putting the Fed and other central banks under the 'interest-rate spotlight,' complicating the path for any easing pivot. For Japan specifically, higher energy import costs exacerbate the current-account drag from the weak yen, adding to imported inflation at a time when real wages remain under pressure. The Nikkei 225 shed 2.73% in Friday's session, partly attributed to a global tech selloff triggered by Alphabet earnings, compounding the risk-off backdrop.
Why it matters: Oil near $100 combined with a 40-year-low yen creates a twin inflationary shock for Japan's import-dependent economy, raising the probability that the BOJ is forced to hike sooner than the market's base case — a key scenario shift that would compress the yen carry trade and hurt export-stock multiples simultaneously.
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3
Bain Capital Exits Kioxia at Record $17bn Gain; SK Hynix Becomes Second-Largest Shareholder
Bain Capital has realized approximately $17 billion from its Kioxia stake sale — a Japan record for a single PE exit — following Kioxia's IPO. Concurrently, SK Hynix is set to become Kioxia's second-largest shareholder pending conversion of its convertible instruments, deepening Korea-Japan memory industry cross-ownership. This structural shift places two of the world's leading NAND flash producers in closer alliance at a time when NAND pricing is recovering. The $17bn Bain exit also validates Japan's PE market depth and is a positive signal for future large-cap Japan buyout activity.
Why it matters: SK Hynix's pending stake creates a cross-read to global NAND supply discipline — a combined Kioxia/SK Hynix coordination signal would be bullish for NAND pricing recovery and positive for memory-exposed names including Western Digital and Micron; Bain's record exit also recalibrates Japan PE return expectations and may accelerate inbound PE flows.
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4
Japan Parliament Passes Secondary Capital Bill; Takaichi Faces Opposition Grilling
Japan's parliament passed a secondary capital bill — targeting improvements to corporate capital efficiency — before adjourning after a 158-day session, with PM Takaichi set to face opposition questioning at the Lower House Budget Committee. The legislation is part of Japan's ongoing corporate governance reform push, which has been a key driver of foreign institutional inflows into Japanese equities over the past two years. The parliament adjournment removes near-term political uncertainty, though Takaichi's upcoming grilling introduces headline risk. Goldman Sachs's concurrent TOPIX upgrade to 4,500 suggests sell-side consensus remains constructive on the reform trajectory.
Why it matters: Passage of capital efficiency legislation is a direct positive for Japan's governance reform trade — the core thesis driving global EM rotations into Japan — and sustains the framework underpinning Goldman's TOPIX upgrade; any political instability around Takaichi would be a risk to reform continuity and should be monitored for potential consensus disruption.
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5
Yamada HD and EDION Merger Talks Hit Major Twist; Seven & i Drops Poland Retail Investment
A Smartkarma event-driven brief flags a potentially significant new development in the Yamada Holdings (TSE:9831) and EDION (TSE:2730) merger discussions, which could alter the deal structure or consideration terms. Separately, Seven & i has abandoned its plan to invest in Poland's leading retailer, signaling a continued strategic retreat to core operations as the company faces pressure to simplify its portfolio following the collapse of the Alimentation Couche-Tard acquisition bid. Both developments reflect the broader Japan corporate restructuring theme — companies being pressured by activist investors and governance reform mandates to sharpen focus. Seven & i's withdrawal from Poland may redirect capital toward its core convenience store business or North American strategy.
Why it matters: The Yamada/EDION twist is a live event-driven opportunity — any deal repricing or structure change creates a spread trade; Seven & i's continued asset pruning is a positive signal for its sum-of-parts valuation thesis and consistent with the Japan governance reform narrative that is driving the TOPIX re-rating.
Korea
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1
SK Hynix Q2 Operating Profit Expected at Record $43.7B on HBM Dominance
Consensus from 14 Korean brokerages puts SK Hynix Q2 operating profit at 64.1 trillion won ($43.7B) on 84.1 trillion won in sales — both figures would surpass the company's previous full-year record of 47.2 trillion won. The result is driven by HBM leadership amid the AI semiconductor supercycle. Separately, SK Hynix's market cap crossed the $1 trillion mark during the week. The stock's implied operating margin approaching ~76% signals an extraordinary pricing and mix environment in advanced memory.
Why it matters: A Q2 OP print of this magnitude resets consensus HBM profitability assumptions significantly higher and serves as a direct cross-read to AI infrastructure capex durability — reinforcing bull cases for Nvidia, TSMC, and the broader AI supply chain. Investors underweight memory should reconsider allocation given the magnitude of the earnings inflection.
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2
Samsung Wins $200B Broadcom Chip Order; Korean Conglomerates Seal $950B AI Deals at SF Summit
Samsung Electronics signed a $200B MOU with Broadcom for 2nm-and-below chip supply through 2030, confirmed during President Lee Jae Myung's AI summit in San Francisco. Total AI and semiconductor partnership commitments made by Samsung, SK Group, and Hyundai Motor with US Big Tech reached $950B. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won separately confirmed Anthropic approached SK Hynix for chip supplies to support its own in-house silicon ambitions. The breadth of deals signals deep structural integration between Korean chipmakers and US hyperscalers.
Why it matters: Samsung's 2nm foundry win from Broadcom is a pivotal competitive data point — suggesting Samsung Foundry is regaining credibility vs. TSMC for leading-edge advanced packaging/process work, which reshuffles foundry market share assumptions. The Anthropic-SK Hynix angle creates a new custom silicon demand vector that is not yet in sell-side models.
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3
Korean Won REER Falls to 17-Year Low; Hovers Near 1,450/USD Ahead of FOMC
The BIS real effective exchange rate for the Korean won dropped to its lowest level since 2009, confirming sustained structural competitiveness erosion amid weak domestic demand and large current account shifts. The nominal rate held near 1,450 per dollar ahead of the Fed's FOMC meeting, with the yen simultaneously breaching 163, keeping cross-Asia carry dynamics in focus. The Korea Times reported a partial rebound in the won from recent lows, but the REER signal suggests the pressure is structural rather than merely spot-driven.
Why it matters: A 17-year REER low intensifies the probability of BoK intervention rhetoric or rate action and raises USD-denominated earnings translation risk for Korean exporters — a key variable for foreign investors in KOSPI. Combined with FOMC uncertainty and JPY carry dislocation, KRW volatility is a near-term risk that directly affects hedging costs for Korea-exposed portfolios.
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4
SK Telecom Jumps 5% as Chey Divorce Ruling Fuels Dividend Speculation
SK Telecom shares surged more than 5% Friday — even as the broader KOSPI fell 5% — after a court ordered SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won to pay 944 billion won (~$645M) in cash to his ex-wife. Market participants are betting that Chey's need to raise liquidity will incentivize him to push for higher dividends from SK Telecom, where his combined shareholding stake is valued at ~10.83 trillion won as of Q2. The implied re-rating is governance-driven, not earnings-driven — a pattern consistent with Korean shareholder return reform themes.
Why it matters: This is a live governance/capital return catalyst for SK Telecom with a quantifiable trigger amount, directly relevant to Korea's ongoing shareholder return reform narrative. If Chey extracts dividends from SKT to meet the settlement, it validates a recurring thesis that chaebols are being forced toward Western-style capital return policies — a positive read for the Korea discount compression trade.
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5
Korean Pension Funds Turn Net Buyers on KOSPI in July; Retail Pours ₩70T Into ETFs
Korean pension funds became net buyers on KOSPI in July for the first time in 2026, providing a domestic institutional stabilization bid after a volatile first half. Concurrently, Korean retail investors channeled approximately 70 trillion won ($47.9B) into ETFs year-to-date, rotating toward income-oriented funds amid market swings. A separate report noted retail investors rushed 450 billion won into leveraged products ahead of a deposit margin hike. Domestic investors also quadrupled US stock purchases, signaling a bifurcated flow — ETF income-seeking domestically while aggressively buying foreign equities.
Why it matters: Pension fund re-entry is a meaningful technical support signal for KOSPI with the index testing the 7,000 level ahead of FOMC and big-tech earnings; historically, pension accumulation phases have preceded sustained recoveries in Korean equities. The surge in leveraged product buying and US equity purchases also reflect retail risk appetite that could amplify volatility in either direction if macro catalysts disappoint.
India
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1
Indian Equities Post Fifth Straight Loss; Nifty Closes at 23,767, Sensex Down 2.68%
Indian markets fell for a fifth consecutive session last week, with the Sensex dropping 2.68% to 76,059 and Nifty declining 2.33% to 23,767. The sell-off was driven by elevated oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict, persistent FII outflows, and rising US Treasury yields. Market cap of nine of the top-10 most valued Indian firms eroded by a combined ₹2.74 lakh crore, with HDFC Bank alone losing over ₹1 lakh crore. Technical analysts flag Nifty support at 23,600 and resistance at 24,000 as critical levels heading into next week.
Why it matters: A five-session losing streak with FII outflows and geopolitical oil-price pressure shifts the near-term positioning bias toward defensive/underweight India equities; the 23,600 Nifty level is the key downside trigger to watch for forced stop-loss selling and potential index-level re-rating.
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2
US Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.50-3.75% for Fifth Straight Meeting; Decision Due This Week
The Federal Reserve under new chair Kevin Warsh meets Tuesday, with CME FedWatch pricing in a hold at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting amid sticky inflation compounded by the US-Iran war and elevated oil prices. Markets are simultaneously watching a heavy US tech earnings slate. Bond markets are already under pressure, with rising yields bruising rate-sensitive assets globally. Indian analysts cite the Fed decision as a primary driver of rupee direction and FII equity flow reversal probability this week.
Why it matters: A hold-with-hawkish-tilt outcome would sustain USD strength and elevated US yields, prolonging FII outflows from Indian equities and keeping rupee under pressure — directly affecting the near-term bull thesis for Indian financials and rate-sensitive sectors.
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3
US Pharma Tariff Proposal Flags Structural Risk for Indian Generic Exporters
Experts warn that a US tariff proposal on pharmaceutical imports is a material risk for Indian generic drug makers, which derive a disproportionate share of revenues from the US market. The recommendation is to accelerate geographic diversification and increase innovation spend to reduce dependence on a single market. Patient-access concerns add a political dimension that could complicate bilateral trade negotiations. No specific tariff rate was disclosed in the snippet, but the sectoral alert is unambiguous.
Why it matters: Indian pharma (Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, Cipla, Aurobindo) carries significant US revenue exposure; a tariff regime shift would compress margins and force portfolio restructuring, directly altering earnings estimates for the sector — a cross-read to ongoing US-Asia trade and tariff actions.
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4
IDFC First Bank Posts Record ₹1,075 Crore Q1 Profit, More Than Doubling Year-on-Year
IDFC First Bank reported its highest-ever quarterly net profit of ₹1,075 crore for Q1 FY27, more than doubling from the prior-year period, driven by strong net interest income growth and declining provisions. Loan growth remained robust across retail and wholesale segments, while asset quality improved. Return ratios and margins both moved higher, positioning the bank as a positive outlier in the Q1 earnings season. Management signalled sustained business momentum.
Why it matters: With marquee names including Bajaj Finance, L&T, HUL, and Maruti reporting next week, IDFC First Bank's results set a constructive early read on Indian financial sector credit quality and provision cycle — a key swing factor for financials-heavy Nifty positioning.
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5
India IPO Pipeline Surges: 14 Firms Target ₹25,000 Crore in August; Zepto, Manipal Health Lead
Over 14 companies — including quick-commerce platform Zepto, Manipal Health Enterprises (₹9,275 crore issue), Juniper Green Energy, and Shiprocket — are lined up to tap the primary market in the coming weeks, collectively targeting more than ₹25,000 crore. Nine issues will open this week alone, raising over ₹11,300 crore. Carlyle's auto-components platform Highway Roop Precision Technologies is separately targeting a ~$500 million IPO at a ~$2 billion valuation with GS, Nomura, and Axis as bankers. PhonePe also disclosed FY26 revenues of ₹7,920 crore (+11.5% YoY) ahead of its own IPO, though net losses widened to ₹2,792 crore.
Why it matters: A ₹25,000+ crore primary market wave amid a five-session equity decline tests domestic liquidity depth and retail/DII absorption capacity; PhonePe's widening losses are a negative datapoint for fintech IPO valuations, while the pipeline volume itself signals promoter confidence in a market recovery — a flow and sentiment inflection to monitor.
Asia Tech
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1
Samsung and SK Hynix secure ~$950B in US-Korea AI chip supply deals
A cluster of reports from Korea JoongAng Daily, Korea Times, and Chosun confirm that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have signed a combined ~$950 billion in AI-related chip supply agreements with major US hyperscalers and AI firms, including a separately reported $200 billion Samsung-Broadcom foundry pact running through 2030. The deals cover HBM, advanced DRAM, and foundry services over multi-year horizons. Chosun raises credible questions about the arithmetic — whether stated commitment values reflect firm purchase orders or aspirational frameworks — a distinction that materially affects how much revenue can be booked and when. Samsung's chairman Lee Jae-yong was photographed meeting OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in San Francisco in the same week, signalling active CEO-level relationship management for AI customer wins.
Why it matters: If even a fraction of the $950B is firm take-or-pay, it de-risks Samsung foundry and SK Hynix HBM revenue visibility through 2030 and removes a key bear case (demand cliff post-Blackwell); the Broadcom pact specifically pressures TSMC's advanced packaging share narrative and is a direct read for AVGO capex commitment and Samsung foundry re-rating.
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2
SK Hynix becomes Kioxia's second-largest shareholder pending warrant conversion
Chosun reports that SK Hynix is set to become Kioxia's second-largest shareholder once share warrants obtained as part of the 2021 restructuring are converted, giving Hynix a meaningful equity stake in the world's third-largest NAND producer. The conversion timeline and exact ownership percentage are pending regulatory clearance. This follows Kioxia's Tokyo IPO earlier this year and comes as NAND pricing remains in a fragile recovery. The move deepens Hynix's vertical integration across both HBM/DRAM and NAND, and gives it board-level influence over Kioxia's capex decisions.
Why it matters: A larger SK Hynix equity stake in Kioxia tightens already concentrated NAND supply further and gives Hynix leverage over Kioxia capex — a direct upside read for NAND ASP recovery assumptions and a competitive threat to Samsung's flash business; it also creates a cross-read to Western Digital's NAND JV strategy.
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3
Nvidia invests $1B in Naver; Naver-Nvidia-Brookfield commit $10B to triple Korea AI datacenter capacity to 200 MW
Multiple sources (Tech Times, Chosunbiz, Macau Business, IBT Australia) confirm that Naver, Nvidia, and Brookfield Asset Management have agreed to a $10 billion buildout of Korea's national AI datacenter infrastructure, tripling capacity to 200 megawatts. Nvidia will directly invest $1 billion into Naver as part of the arrangement, giving it an equity stake in Korea's dominant internet platform. Brookfield provides the real-asset financing structure. The deal is framed as a state-aligned initiative under President Lee's AI ambitions and positions Korea as a major AIDC hub for the region.
Why it matters: Nvidia's direct equity investment in Naver is a novel go-to-market structure that locks in GPU demand and creates a sovereign-aligned distribution channel in Northeast Asia; the $10B AIDC commitment is a concrete capex flow supporting H100/B200 GPU demand visibility and cross-reads to Nvidia's forward revenue cadence and Brookfield's digital infrastructure AUM growth thesis.
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4
Apple-CXMT Chinese memory sourcing debate sharpens US policy dilemma for iPhone supply chain
Multiple outlets (Firstpost, Times of India, Chosun) report that Apple is actively evaluating or sourcing DRAM from China's CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) for iPhone, while Micron is lobbying the US government to block the arrangement citing national security grounds. Tom's Hardware separately confirms CXMT modules have entered the retail market but prices track the big-three (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) rather than undercutting — suggesting CXMT is not yet a cost disruptor. The US government faces a direct conflict between Apple's supply chain cost interests and domestic chip policy, with no resolution reported yet.
Why it matters: If the US government restricts Apple's access to CXMT memory, it forces Apple back to the big-three at current pricing (margin headwind for Apple, upside for Samsung/Hynix/Micron ASPs); if permitted, it validates CXMT as a fourth global DRAM supplier and structurally caps memory pricing power — a binary outcome that should be in every memory sector model.
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5
SoftBank nears acquisition of Gravis Robotics, extending physical-AI portfolio
A report from jawlah.co indicates SoftBank is in advanced discussions to acquire Gravis Robotics, a construction and heavy-equipment automation startup. Deal terms were not disclosed. This follows SoftBank's escalating bets on physical AI — including its Ampere Computing and Arm holdings — and comes as SoftBank Vision Fund seeks to rebuild its deployment narrative ahead of potential further capital raises. Gravis operates autonomous machinery for construction sites, an underserved vertical in industrial robotics.
Why it matters: SoftBank acquisitions in physical AI/robotics signal continued Vision Fund capital deployment and add another data point to the industrial automation investment cycle; cross-reads to Fanuc, Keyence, and other Japan factory-automation names on whether SoftBank-backed entrants will disrupt or accelerate the sector.
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