Hong Kong
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1
China's MoF Vice Minister Signals Timely Fiscal Stimulus Rollout
China's vice finance minister stated Beijing will roll out additional fiscal policy support 'in a timely way,' reinforcing expectations for near-term stimulus. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose ~0.72% intraday and closed up ~0.80% to 25,698, with markets explicitly attributed to hopes of fiscal boost. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.7817, slightly weaker than the prior 6.7808 but well above the Reuters model estimate of 6.7262, suggesting the central bank is allowing only measured yuan appreciation near 3.5-year highs. China stocks were flat to mixed on the week as investors await concrete policy delivery rather than guidance.
Why it matters: The fiscal signal is the primary near-term catalyst for positioning in Chinese equities and HK-listed proxies; if delivery underwhelms consensus, the Hang Seng rally lacks a fundamental anchor. The CNY fixing gap versus model estimate also warrants watching — a sustained stronger-than-fixed yuan would tighten onshore financial conditions and compress the carry that has been supporting EM inflows.
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2
Evergrande Onshore Unit Enters Court-Accepted Liquidation; Founder Sentenced to Life
Guangzhou Intermediate People's Court accepted a bankruptcy liquidation petition from Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank against Hengda Real Estate, Evergrande's main onshore entity — a day after founder Hui Ka-yan received a life sentence and an 8.82 billion yuan fine. This marks the first formal onshore liquidation proceeding against the group's domestic operations, complementing the offshore liquidation already underway in Hong Kong. The SCMP notes the event closes the final chapter on China's largest-ever property developer collapse. An associated Bloomberg explainer flagged that property prices remain under pressure despite the sector's symbolic endpoint with Evergrande.
Why it matters: Formal onshore liquidation changes the creditor-recovery calculus for offshore bondholders and cross-reads directly to China EM credit spreads — investors should reassess residual recovery assumptions and watch for contagion to other distressed developers still restructuring. This is also a broader signal that Beijing is willing to impose hard endings on SOE-adjacent property entities, reducing the implicit bailout premium previously embedded in the sector.
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3
MiniMax and Z.ai Front-Runners for Hang Seng Index as Tech Weighting Rises
China Merchants Securities and multiple market sources flagged MiniMax (00100.HK) and Z.ai as lead candidates for the upcoming Hang Seng Index review, as the index compiler continues to raise technology sector weighting. MiniMax surged ~9% intraday on the same day after launching its multimodal creative agent workbench 'MiniMax Design,' a product catalyst that coincided with the index speculation. Alibaba rose ~2% and Xiaomi gained ~2%+ at the open, with the Hang Seng Tech sub-index showing relative strength even as the broader index noted a bear-market label for the tech gauge.
Why it matters: Index inclusion of newly listed AI-native names would force passive tracker buying and reprice the tech weighting across Hang Seng-linked ETFs — this is a direct flow trigger for institutional positioning in HK-listed China tech. The product launch by MiniMax adds a fundamental catalyst on top of the index-driven technical bid, making it a convergent long thesis.
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4
Alibaba Q2 Net Profit Drops 75% as AI Capex Surge Weighs on Earnings
Alibaba reported a ~75% year-on-year decline in quarterly net profit, driven by surging AI infrastructure investment spending. Despite the headline profit miss, Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares rose ~2% in early trading on the same day, suggesting the market had anticipated heavy capex and is focused on forward AI monetization rather than near-term earnings. PopMart, by contrast, fell ~8% after missing forecasts — illustrating selective earnings tolerance. Alibaba's AI investment trajectory provides a cross-read to the global hyperscaler capex cycle and China cloud/AI infrastructure buildout.
Why it matters: Alibaba's willingness to sacrifice near-term profits for AI infrastructure investment is a key signal on the intensity of China's AI arms race — it validates elevated capex assumptions for cloud and semis suppliers globally and creates a read-across to NVIDIA, TSMC, and HBM memory demand. The market's positive price reaction despite the miss suggests sentiment has shifted to pricing AI option value over current earnings, a key assumption change for HK tech multiples.
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5
Guotai Haitong Asset Management Fined $7.8M in China's QDII Capital-Flow Crackdown
China's regulators ordered Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management to pay 52.5 million yuan (US$7.8 million) — comprising a 25.9 million yuan fine plus 26.7 million yuan in confiscated illegal gains — for violating foreign-exchange rules governing its Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) offshore investment business. The action is part of Beijing's broader tightening of scrutiny on cross-border capital flows. Guotai Haitong is a leading Chinese brokerage, making the enforcement action a high-profile signal to the industry. No individual criminal charges were disclosed in this report.
Why it matters: Regulatory enforcement against QDII operations directly tightens the conduit through which onshore Chinese capital accesses offshore markets, including Hong Kong equities — a sustained crackdown would reduce structural demand for HK-listed stocks from mainland investors at a time when the southbound flow is a key support for Hang Seng valuations. This also raises compliance risk premia for other brokerages running offshore investment platforms.
Japan
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1
Japan July CPI Hits 2026 High, Cementing September BOJ Rate-Hike Expectations
Japan's July nationwide core CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year — the fastest pace since January 2026 — driven materially by rising energy costs linked to Middle East tensions. Multiple tier-1 sources (Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, Japan Times) confirm the print has firmed market consensus for a BOJ rate hike at the September meeting, with Bloomberg separately noting a growing chorus for an accelerated tightening path. Despite the hotter print, USD/JPY held near ¥160 and the yen failed to strengthen meaningfully, with FXStreet attributing this to prior intervention effects losing traction. Nikkei 225 fell ~0.36% on the day, with intraday declines briefly exceeding 900 points as rate-sensitive sectors led losses.
Why it matters: A September BOJ hike would push the policy rate above 1% for the first time in decades, directly repricing Japanese bank NIM expectations upward and reviving JPY carry-unwind risk — the single largest cross-asset contagion channel into global risk assets, EM, and leveraged long positions built on cheap yen funding.
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2
Japan FSA to Establish New Inspection Office Following Regional Credit Cooperative Scandals
Japan's Financial Services Agency announced plans to set up a dedicated inspection office to step up scrutiny of financial institutions, following a series of scandals uncovered at regional credit cooperatives. The move signals a meaningful regulatory posture shift — from periodic to more structured, institutionalized surveillance — for Japan's fragmented regional banking sector. The timing is notable as BOJ rate normalization is set to change the credit risk environment materially for smaller lenders. No specific institutions were named, but the announcement implies elevated compliance costs and potential balance sheet scrutiny across regional banks and shinkin cooperatives.
Why it matters: Intensified FSA inspection of regional financials could expose latent credit quality issues precisely as rising rates alter deposit/loan dynamics — a negative for regional bank multiples and a risk to the 'megabank-only' rate-hike beneficiary consensus trade.
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3
Japan Megabanks Book Record Profits as BOJ Rates Reach 1%
Japanese megabanks have reported record profits attributable to the BOJ's rate normalization cycle, with the policy rate now at 1%. The NIM expansion environment has directly inflated net interest income across MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho. With July CPI now pointing to a further hike in September, the earnings tailwind for megabanks has additional runway. The divergence with the Nikkei's broader decline on hike fears underscores the bifurcated positioning dynamic — megabanks as the core beneficiary trade versus rate-sensitive growth/tech names as the pain trade.
Why it matters: Record megabank profits validate the long-Japan-financials thesis and provide a concrete earnings catalyst update; a confirmed September hike extends the NIM expansion runway, directly supporting consensus overweight positioning in MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho.
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4
China Tests Boosted Maritime Presence East of Taiwan Amid Japan-Philippines Cooperation
A new study cited by Japan Times finds China systematically ramping up its maritime presence in waters east of Taiwan, interpreted as an effort to establish jurisdiction and counter emerging Japan-Philippines security cooperation. This occurs against the backdrop of the US temporarily withdrawing its sole Pacific aircraft carrier for Middle East deployment, creating a coverage gap in the Asia-Pacific. Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi separately condemned Russia's rare missile tests near the Northern Territories. The convergence of these developments points to a material escalation in regional security complexity facing Japan.
Why it matters: Sustained Chinese maritime pressure east of Taiwan elevates cross-strait risk premium at the same time US force projection in the Pacific is reduced — a combination that should reprice Japan defense sector valuations upward and warrants revisiting supply-chain diversification assumptions for Taiwan-exposed semiconductor and electronics holdings.
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5
Japan Scraps Cool Japan Fund After ¥54 Billion in Accumulated Losses
The Japanese government announced the dissolution of the Cool Japan Fund — a state-backed vehicle promoting Japanese cultural exports — following accumulated losses of approximately ¥54 billion through fiscal year-end 2025. The government plans to pivot toward direct content grants rather than equity investment. The fund's failure reflects broader challenges in government-directed industrial policy vehicles and raises questions about the capital allocation discipline of related policy institutions. The shift toward grants over equity removes a minor but persistent source of capital for Japan's content and media companies.
Why it matters: The fund's wind-down removes a government equity backstop for Japanese content sector names and signals a policy model shift away from state investment vehicles — a modest negative for companies that had benefited from Cool Japan capital but a signal worth monitoring for downstream effects on Japan's broader content and IP export strategy.
Korea
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1
Korea Aug. 1-20 exports surge 56%, semiconductors up ~199% YoY to record $26bn
South Korea's first-20-day August export data showed a 56% YoY jump to a record ~$55.2bn total, with semiconductor shipments surging ~199% and accounting for a record 47.2% share of the total. The data, reported by Yonhap and Bloomberg, directly reinforces the case for consecutive Bank of Korea rate hikes, as the semiconductor boom underpins nominal GDP and inflation dynamics. The Korean won simultaneously hit an 11-month/48-week high, with emerging Asia FX broadly firmer against the dollar. Markets are now pricing back-to-back BoK tightening, a material shift from the easing consensus that prevailed earlier in 2026.
Why it matters: A 199% semiconductor export print is a hard data point that resets Korea GDP and current account estimates and forces a re-evaluation of BoK terminal rate assumptions — directly impacting KRW positioning, KOSPI hedging costs, and provides a strong cross-read for global HBM/memory pricing strength and AI capex cycle durability into H2 2026.
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2
New BOK Deputy Governor warns back-to-back rate hike risks; vows flexible, careful policy
Newly appointed Bank of Korea Senior Deputy Governor publicly cautioned against the market's rapidly building back-to-back tightening bets, calling for monetary policy to be conducted 'very carefully' and 'prudently' while acknowledging both inflation and growth risks. The remarks came amid surging chip export data and a KRW at 11-month highs, which together have pushed rate hike expectations sharply higher. The deputy governor's dovish pushback introduces meaningful uncertainty about the pace of the BoK's tightening cycle even as the data backdrop supports further hikes. Markets must now weigh a data-driven case for sequential hikes against explicit signaling of caution from BoK's number two.
Why it matters: The tension between record export/semiconductor data pointing to hikes and the new deputy governor's explicit caution is the single most important variable for KRW carry trades, Korean bond duration positioning, and the pace of capital flow rotation into Korean equities — any hawkish surprise or dovish capitulation would reprice across those asset classes simultaneously.
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3
Samsung Electronics to announce ~$72.4bn shareholder return; KOSPI reclaims 6,900
Samsung Electronics is expected to announce a shareholder return program of at least 100 trillion won (~$72.4bn) at a board meeting as early as Friday, Aug. 21, or the following week, per industry sources cited by Korea Times. This would represent the final year of its 2024-26 three-year policy and potentially its largest-ever capital return. Samsung shares rose nearly 4% on the day, lifting KOSPI to close up 0.88% at 6,912.95, with SK Hynix also gaining over 2%. The announcement follows a similar initiative by SK Hynix amid record AI-driven earnings. Separately, the DS/DX internal pay dispute and Hyundai Motor workers' first full 8-hour strike in 10 years add operational risk context for large Korean industrials.
Why it matters: A $72bn+ capital return from Samsung — the KOSPI's largest constituent — is a direct catalyst for foreign equity inflow re-evaluation and Korea discount/governance premium repricing; it also reinforces the Korea shareholder return reform narrative that has driven the index's doubling, a key cross-read for EM equity flow rotation and the Korea Value-Up thesis.
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4
Kakao board approves split into KakaoAI and KakaoX; stock drops 11% on announcement
Kakao Corp.'s board approved a structural separation of its businesses into two entities: KakaoAI (encompassing KakaoTalk messenger and AI-core operations) and KakaoX (non-AI/investment businesses). The split is set to take effect January 1, 2027, with KakaoAI relisting on the Korea Exchange on January 27, 2027. The market reacted sharply negatively — Kakao stock fell 11% on the day — suggesting investors are concerned about execution risk, valuation drag from the separation, or dilution uncertainty around the relist. The move is framed as an AI pivot, positioning KakaoTalk's 50mn+ MAU base as an AI distribution layer.
Why it matters: An 11% single-day drop on a restructuring that was intended as a positive AI pivot signals the market is skeptical of execution and the KakaoAI relist valuation — investors in Korean internet and AI-platform names need to reassess whether the spinoff unlocks or destroys value, with implications for how the market prices other Korean platform AI transformation stories.
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5
Shinhan Asset Management pilots KRW-denominated tokenized fund on Solana; Korea Investment & Securities calls for KRW stablecoin
Shinhan Asset Management launched a four-party pilot project testing a Korean won-denominated tokenized fund on the Solana blockchain, making it one of the first institutional-grade KRW tokenized fund experiments by a major Korean asset manager. Separately, Korea Investment & Securities issued a research note arguing that a KRW stablecoin is a prerequisite for expanding Korea's tokenized securities market. Together, the two developments indicate that Korean institutional finance is accelerating its push into real-world asset tokenization and on-chain fund infrastructure. The Solana chain selection is notable given competition among L1 networks for institutional tokenization flows.
Why it matters: Institutional KRW tokenization pilots by a top-5 Korean asset manager set a regulatory and infrastructure precedent that could accelerate Korea's virtual asset framework development — a cross-read for global stablecoin/tokenized asset regulation and a positive signal for Solana's institutional adoption narrative relative to competing L1 chains.
India
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1
India August Flash PMI: Manufacturing Hits Five-Year Low, Services Rebound Partially
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in August, marking the slowest factory expansion in five years, while the Composite PMI recovered modestly from an over four-year low as services activity rebounded. New orders grew at a quicker but still below-historical-average pace. The data reveals a bifurcated economy where services hiring is robust but industrial momentum is decelerating meaningfully. The Nifty's resilience despite this print suggests the market is pricing recovery expectations rather than current momentum.
Why it matters: A five-year low in manufacturing PMI challenges consensus assumptions of a broad-based India growth acceleration and could delay the earnings recovery thesis outside BFSI and IT; it also complicates the RBI's room to stay on hold if growth softens further while oil-driven inflation persists.
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2
RBI Defends Rupee Via Dollar Sales as USD/INR Anchored Near 95.65
The RBI maintained an active dollar-selling intervention streak to defend the rupee, keeping USD/INR anchored near 95.64-95.65 in early trade despite headwinds from Brent crude near $94, recovering US Treasury yields, and reduced Russian crude supply driving up India's import bill. The rupee opened 7-9 paise stronger on the day but remains on course for a weekly dip. RBI intervention signals a de facto managed-float cap, limiting INR depreciation but consuming FX reserves.
Why it matters: Active RBI FX intervention at elevated oil prices creates a dual pressure on reserves and monetary policy optionality; investors should reassess INR carry attractiveness and watch for any reserve drawdown data that could signal intervention limits, with implications for EM currency positioning.
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3
HDFC Bank Raises Record $1.75 Billion Dollar Bond Under RBI Window Before August 31 Deadline
HDFC Bank raised $1.75 billion via a dual-tranche senior unsecured bond sale through its GIFT City branch — $1.25 billion in five-year and $500 million in three-year paper — both priced tighter than initial guidance as investor bids totalled ~$7 billion, a 4x oversubscription. This makes HDFC Bank the largest single issuer under the RBI overseas borrowing facility, which closes August 31. Shares rose ~1% to ₹729. The rush reflects broader Indian bank appetite to lock in offshore funding before the window shuts.
Why it matters: The record oversubscription signals strong global demand for Indian bank credit at current spreads, a positive read for Indian BFSI credit quality assumptions; the August 31 deadline creates a near-term catalyst watch for other large private banks, and Goldman Sachs simultaneously initiating Buy on ICICI Bank and Kotak reinforces a sector re-rating narrative.
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4
Goldman Sachs Initiates 14 Indian Banks; Sees Private Banks at ROA Inflection
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on 14 Indian banks with Buy ratings on ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, citing earnings growth, franchise strength, and normalisation of return on assets as key re-rating drivers, with upside targets up to 37%. The note frames private banks as being at a structural inflection point. Separately, FII data shows Rs 6,535 crore of foreign inflows into Indian financials this month, with buying also in autos and consumer services, while telecom and capital goods saw selling.
Why it matters: A Goldman initiation with explicit ROA normalisation thesis provides a consensus anchor for FII re-allocation into Indian private banks; combined with active FII inflows into financials, this raises the probability of sustained sector outperformance and is a cross-read for EM equity flow rotation into India.
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5
India Government Allows 1 Million Tonne Duty-Free Sugar Imports, Stocks Tumble Up to 5%
The Indian government permitted duty-free imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar until October 31, reversing its prior export-oriented policy stance as domestic supply tightened ahead of the festive season. Balrampur Chini Mills, Dhampur Sugar Mills, and Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar fell up to 5% on the news. The policy U-turn suggests 2025-26 production and stock estimates were materially too optimistic, raising questions about crop-year assumptions embedded in sugar company earnings models.
Why it matters: The abrupt policy reversal from net exporter to duty-free importer is a direct negative earnings revision trigger for listed sugar millers and signals the government is prioritising consumer price control over producer margins heading into the festive/election cycle — a recurring pattern investors should factor into agri-commodity sector positioning.
Asia Tech
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1
Samsung Electronics Board to Approve Up to $79B Shareholder Return Plan Friday
Samsung Electronics is set to convene a board meeting on Friday to formally discuss and approve a shareholder return program reported at ₩100 trillion (~$72–79 billion), the largest in the company's history. Sources cited by Bloomberg, Reuters, and Korea Times confirm the scale, with a shareholder activist group simultaneously rallying for higher dividends. Samsung shares rose 3% on the news. The announcement comes alongside a scheduled Galaxy smartphone launch on August 27, concentrating multiple catalysts in a single week.
Why it matters: A $72–79B return commitment would structurally re-rate Samsung's capital allocation thesis and directly challenges SK Hynix's governance lead — cross-read for Korean equity index flows and Korea governance reform trade. Confirmation Friday shifts the dividend yield and buyback assumption for the largest weight in KOSPI, with implications for EM equity rotation.
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2
SK Hynix Explores Multitrillion-Won Memory Fab in Japan's Miyagi Prefecture
SK Hynix is evaluating a large-scale memory chip manufacturing investment in Miyagi, Japan, worth tens of trillions of won, per Hankyoreh and confirmed by Digitimes and Seeking Alpha. The company stresses no investment decision is final. This follows SK Hynix's dominant HBM3e/HBM4 position with Nvidia and comes as Barclays simultaneously reiterates Overweight on SK Hynix (price target trimmed) citing HBM demand strength and its Nvidia partnership. A Japan fab would benefit from Tokyo's semiconductor subsidy framework.
Why it matters: A Japan greenfield by SK Hynix would represent a major capacity expansion signal for the HBM/advanced DRAM cycle and is a direct cross-read for Tokyo Electron, Shin-Etsu, and Japanese equipment/materials suppliers — as well as for global AI infrastructure capex assumptions. It also intensifies competitive pressure on Samsung's HBM4 ramp timeline.
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3
Kakao Splits Into KakaoAI and KakaoX; Stock Drops 11–12% on AI Skepticism
Kakao Corp. approved a structural split effective January 1, 2027, creating KakaoAI (chat-app platform, AI core) targeting a KRX relisting on January 27, 2027, and KakaoX (investment/non-core assets). The company set a 2030 revenue target of ~$11.6 billion for the combined entities. Shares fell 11–12% on announcement as markets questioned AI monetization credibility rather than celebrating the unlock. Kakao subsequently clarified that KakaoX will not become a holding company and that founder Brian Kim remains the largest shareholder — readings that failed to arrest the selloff.
Why it matters: The market's negative reaction — punishing a restructuring meant to surface AI value — is a direct signal on the credibility discount applied to Korea internet AI monetization stories, relevant for positioning in Naver and other Korean platform names. The 2027 relisting introduces an index rebalancing and float-change event to model.
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4
South Korea Chip Exports Hit Record High in August; Government Plans Chip Windfall Fund
South Korea's chip exports reached a record high in August, per Kaohoon International, providing hard data corroborating memory demand strength heading into Q3 reporting. Separately, the Korean government announced a plan to create a chip windfall fund — taxing semiconductor sector profits to fund youth employment and AI investment initiatives — per Reuters and Crypto Briefing. The windfall fund structure introduces a new fiscal drag variable for Samsung and SK Hynix net-income modeling.
Why it matters: Record export data is a real-time read on HBM/DRAM end-demand that supports the bullish memory cycle thesis and cross-reads to global AI infrastructure spend; the windfall tax proposal is an incremental earnings headwind that is not yet in consensus models and warrants monitoring for legislative progress.
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5
Samsung SDI to Sell $3.2B Samsung Display Stake Back to Display Maker
Samsung SDI announced it will sell approximately $3.2 billion worth of Samsung Display shares back to Samsung Display itself in a cross-shareholding unwind. This is a significant balance sheet restructuring event for SDI, which has faced EV battery demand weakness and has been converting EV production lines to ESS (per SK On's parallel ESS pivot reported the same day). Proceeds could fund SDI's own capex or shareholder returns, and reduce conglomerate cross-holding complexity.
Why it matters: The $3.2B divestiture materially changes Samsung SDI's cash position and strategic optionality at a time when EV battery demand is under pressure and ESS is emerging as the key near-term growth driver — investors should reassess SDI's capital deployment roadmap and whether proceeds accelerate a shareholder return or fund an ESS capacity push.
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